cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/4443753
In the past 10 years or so, tech specialists have repeatedly voiced concerns that the progress of computing power will soon hit the wall. Miniaturisation has physical limits, and then what? Have we reached these limits? Is Moore’s law dead? That’s what we’ll talk about today.
- 00:00 Intro
- 00:53 Moore’s Law And Its Demise
- 06:23 Current Strategies
- 13:14 New Materials
- 15:50 New Hardware
- 18:58 Summary
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Here is an alternative Piped link(s): https://piped.video/watch?v=gWTnpy7sw2g
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Sorry, but Sabine Hossenfelder is a no go for me. In several of her videos, she cherry-picks her sources to fill the narrative she wants to portray and misleads the viewer into thinking what she says as pure facts rather than her own take. She actually makes me question if she’s a right wing shill.
After the dumpster fire of a video she made on trans people some time ago, I will never trust anything she says ever.
Then thanks for pointing that out. It seems I’m pretty much unaware of this. Maybe we watched different videos on different topics. I found her takes on physics generally well reasoned, and do remember her marking her opinion and at least sketching differing opinions.
This is just to tell you where I’m coming from, I don’t want to argue. If you’re right and I am unaware, I want to learn. So if you like to point out an example or two, I’d be happy to look into it.
Sure thing. The trans video that trashgirlfriend mentioned and the hydrogen videos were the ones I had in mind. I haven’t watched them recently but they both were missing information that would make the videos slant in one direction. The trans video was especially disingenuous and upsetting to be honest.
Will check this out interesting thought. But I think humanity will die out before we hit the limit on technology.
But I think humanity will die out before we hit the limit on technology
Certainly not. Quantum effects begin dominating when you attempt to make transistors much smaller than 2nm, and even using “exotic” materials doesn’t fix the problem very much. Making matters worse, you need to be able to get heat out of those transistors, which becomes increasingly difficult. Beyond that, producing high enough yield on chips, with enough of the die area actually consumed by useful circuitry becomes a massive limitation as flaw rates scale non-linearly.
In either case, Moore’s law actually died a few years after he first wrote it when he revised it. And then again, and again in the 90s. It became a design target, and we’ve failed to deliver on the core principal of the original observation. Sophie Wilson (one of the inventors of ARM) has a great talk about this, as well as an address she gives to university kids once every couple years.
