Trump is an existential threat to Iran. Iran is in a regional cold[0] war with Israel. Israel’s ability to wage this war is largely dependent on US support; both in terms of raw military assistance, and in the US providing diplomatic and economic cover for Israel.

While the US had not applied nearly as much moderating pressure on Israel as I would have liked, it has still provided some. Israeli prime minister Netenyahu, in contrast, has been angling for a direct confrontation with Iran for decades now. Given the past 11 months, there are serious forces, both in Israeli politics, Iranian politics, and the inertia of war, pushing in that direction.

Trump is aligned with Netenyahu on this point, and would push him towards a direct confrontation with Iran. By all indications, Harris is not. This dynamic was made clear to Iran when the Democratic administration signed the Iran nuclear deal (against Israeli opposition), from which the US under Trump proceeded to unilaterally withdraw from.

[0] Cold might be a bit of an understatement after the last 11 months. However, apart from a brief tit-for-tat exchange, the fighting has stayed confined to Israel and Iranian proxies.

From what I’ve read in the past, Iranian state actors – influence campaigns and breaking into computers and such – have opposed another Trump presidency.

Trump greenlighted the hit on Soleimani, and is more-supportive of Israel.

Russian state actors, on the other hand, have been supportive of another Trump presidency.

I imagine that that’s something that Tehran and Moscow probably need to work out.

EDIT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/business/media/iran-disinformation-us-presidential-race.html

Iran Emerges as a Top Disinformation Threat in U.S. Presidential Race

With a flurry of hacks and fake websites, Iran has intensified its efforts to discredit American democracy and possibly tip the race against former President Donald Trump.

EDIT2: I was just (critically) discussing Microsoft’s naming scheme for hostile groups the other day. Russian ones are named “something Blizzard” and Iranian ones “something Sandstorm”.

https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/defender-xdr/microsoft-threat-actor-naming

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/us-says-iranian-hackers-sent-trump-information-to-biden-camp/ar-AA1qNFnn

A hacker group with suspected ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps called Mint Sandstorm is suspected of successfully infiltrating the campaign of Trump, a US law enforcement official said at the time.

Those Iranian guys are APT42, aka “Mint Sandstorm”.

https://www.wired.com/story/russia-fancy-bear-us-hacking-campaign-government-energy/

referring to the Hillary Clinton campaign director whose emails were stolen and leaked by APT28 ahead of the 2016 election.

https://www.logpoint.com/en/blog/emerging-threats/forest-blizzard/

The Cyber espionage group Forest Blizzard is attributed to the GRU (Russia’s military intelligence agency).

Forest Blizzard is also known by its numerous aliases: APT 28, Fancy Bear, Pawn Storm, Sednit Gang, Sofacy Group, BlueDelta, and STRONTIUM.

And Russian guys, APT28, aka “Forest Blizzard”.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-accuses-russia-election-interference/

Russian public relations companies to promote disinformation and state-sponsored narratives as part of efforts to influence the upcoming presidential election. He said an internal planning document created by the Kremlin stated one of the campaign’s goals is “securing Russia’s preferred outcome in the election.”

The campaigns involved using “cybersquatted” domains, which are intended to mimic another entity’s domain name and trick visitors into believing they are visiting the legitimate website. These sites, Garland said, were designed to look like major U.S.-based news outlets such as the Washington Post or Fox News, by using the same layout and design, but were fake sites spreading Russian propaganda created by the Kremlin.

Among the goals of the campaigns are to “reduce international support for Ukraine, bolster pro-Russian policies and interests, and influence voters in the U.S. and foreign elections” while concealing the Russian government and its agents as the source of the content, according to the court filings.

The Justice Department accused Doppelganger of using “influencers” worldwide, paid social media advertisements and fake social media profiles purporting to be U.S. citizens to drive viewership to the domains, “all of which attempted to trick viewers into believing they were being directed to a legitimate news media outlet’s website.”

Projects directed at the U.S. include the “Good Old USA Project,” “Guerilla Media Campaign,” and “U.S. Social Media Influencers Network Project,” according to court filings.

The Justice Department obtained notes, project proposals, planning documents and other records during its investigation, some of which detail objectives, target audiences and campaign topics. The department redacted the names of the political parties and presidential candidates, labeling them only as U.S. Political Party A or B, or Candidate A or B, but the documents include information that makes them identifiable.

Objectives of the “Good Old USA” project include boosting the percentage of Americans who believe the U.S. is “doing way too much to support Ukraine,” and lowering President Biden’s confidence rating down to at least 29% in the lead-up to the November election, according to documents submitted by the Justice Department. The document appears to have been prepared in late 2023, when Mr. Biden was still seeking reelection.

EDIT3: Both the Russian and Iranian camps have been reported to be trying to increase political division and decrease trust in the American political system, so I guess they’re aligned on that much, at any rate.

Iran has WMDs and so does Israel. As much as Iran loves to talk about destroying Israel [and vice versa] both sides are aware that they aren’t going to survive a full on war. Look at the Cuban Missile Crisis. Russia felt they had to put weapons in Cuba, even though they knew that if they were found the US would take action. Back in the day they called it ‘Brinksmanship,’ a variation of ‘statesmanship.’ A ‘brinksman’ was a leader/diplomat who could bring his country to the edge of war without going over the edge.

You can trust Harris or Biden to have some cooler heads in the War Room. Trump listens to no one and acts like a child.

Empire has been fixated on Iran for centuries, especially since Iran escaped imperial rule in their revolution. The republican party loves to yap about bombing Iran, etc. Trump’s rhetoric about Iran is really aggressive and wild. It wound up more generally with racism, imperialism, fascism, etc.

The dems are more about liberal fascism. There’s not so much overt racism. There’s no so much over warmongering. They’re willing to “make a deal”. Obama made the nuclear deal, then Trump cancelled it out of spite… Etc.