• harc@szmer.info
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    1 month ago

    If they won why is there fighting still going? And if it’s still going on now and drains Russian resources and bleeds the country (as NATO intends) then why would it stop? It would seem Russia only keeps stepping deeper into NATOs trap, whether it “won” or not? Can you please check what percentage of it’s GDP Europe spends militarizing vs the “winning” Russia? If I recall correctly Russian economic might could be matched by just Germany and Poland, and entire EU would be something like 3-4 times more easily? So if the European states alone want to fight it, they can do it indefinitely from Russian perspective.
    As for Ukrainians, so happens I’ve been working with refugees, my team has been in touch with a few thousand of them, and majority of the team itself is Ukrainian or Belorussian. To put it mildly - you’re out of touch with reality. You understand very little of the hatred towards Russia that it has developed. And there are new generations growing up already, who’d been thought by Russia that neither election or just accepting Russian rule is not an option if they want to survive, the only option is force. There’s only that many watniks and North Koreans one can spend and still have a population that can recover. And if these are bleeding out against mostly 1980’s NATO equipment and modernized soviet era tanks, this would not work out better against less corrupt and much better armed states willing to train new generations of fighters willing to fight till their land is reclaimed? If you believed what you’re saying you’d understand there’s no chance for Russia to actually win.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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      1 month ago

      If they won why is there fighting still going?

      Because the fascist regime you’re backing is gang pressing people into fighting. According to Bloomberg, the share of forcibly mobilized soldiers in the Ukrainian army is 75% https://archive.ph/4FVr4

      It would seem Russia only keeps stepping deeper into NATOs trap, whether it “won” or not?

      Oh wow that’s a fascinating theory. Let’s see what somebody with an actual clue from the The Royal United Services Institute in UK has to say about that https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine

      Can you please check what percentage of it’s GDP Europe spends militarizing vs the “winning” Russia?

      Can you please check the economic crash in Germany that’s unfolding due to lack of cheap energy from Russia? Guess what ramping up military industry needs, that’s right lots of energy for shit like steel production.

      If I recall correctly Russian economic might could be matched by just Germany and Poland, and entire EU would be something like 3-4 times more easily?

      Meanwhile in the real world https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

      So if the European states alone want to fight it, they can do it indefinitely from Russian perspective.

      Sure little buddy, you keep on believing that.

      As for Ukrainians, so happens I’ve been working with refugees, my team has been in touch with a few thousand of them, and majority of the team itself is Ukrainian or Belorussian.

      Oh you’ve been working with all the brave Ukrainian patriots who fled the fighting.

      And there are new generations growing up already, who’d been thought by Russia that neither election or just accepting Russian rule is not an option if they want to survive, the only option is force.

      Nah, they’re just gonna stay in Europe.

      There’s only that many watniks and North Koreans one can spend and still have a population that can recover.

      How to tell people that math isn’t your strong suit.

      If you believed what you’re saying you’d understand there’s no chance for Russia to actually win.

      People like you are a testament to the power of propaganda. The sad truth is that you believe everything you say, and you’ve completely left material reality we exist in. You live in a fantasy world, but thing about material reality is that it can only be ignored for so long.

      And I’m going to stop here, enjoy living in your fantasies while you can cause life’s gonna get real hard for people like you real soon.

      • harc@szmer.info
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        1 month ago

        Because the fascist regime you’re backing is gang pressing people into fighting. According to Bloomberg, the share of forcibly mobilized soldiers in the Ukrainian army is 75%

        Forcing with conscription as any country during war does? Wow, surprise. Let see Paul Allans army - what’s the volunteer share in Russian army? How much are they paying to to volunteer nowdays? And why are there still volunteers joining Ukrainian side, forming entire battalions in the west, where they could just safely stay?

        And even if they were none - you claim Ukraine is a nazi country. You probably know about “operation Gladio”. How can you believe there could be peace if there’s supposedly a massive Ukrainan nazi population and western fascist states willing to use them to destroy Russia, and said Russia attempts to operate on Ukrainians own territory? You’re just casually expecting a CCCP vs Makhnovshchina/Holodomor or Israeli style genocide, or how else could that play out in your head?

        Let’s see what somebody with an actual clue from the The Royal United Services Institute in UK has to say about that

        If the West is serious about a possible great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its industrial capacity, mobilisation doctrine and means of waging a protracted war, rather than conducting wargames covering a single month of conflict and hoping that the war will end afterwards. As the Iraq War taught us, hope is not a method.

        What’s your point here? Long hoping I waste time on reading a longer text with generic statements like “one should prepare for war”? Have a look at Russian reporting on Polands recent armaments. Everyone is already quite invested into that already.

        Can you please check the economic crash in Germany that’s unfolding due to lack of cheap energy from Russia? Guess what ramping up military industry needs, that’s right lots of energy for shit like steel production.

        Ever heard of Norway and US, the NATO countries?

        Meanwhile in the real world

        You’re 12 years old or something? You pick one factor, end believe it solves all or somehow compares to GDP? Clearly you don’t care either about say the social securities system, nor if there’s enough trucks and tracks to transport these shell, or, more importantly quality barrels and trained artillery men to accurately use them. Arrow goes up. I got some Putin NFT’s to sell to you if you’re that dumb.

        Oh you’ve been working with all the brave Ukrainian patriots who fled the fighting.

        Yeah, including Belarusian and Russians. Some 90% women, damn cowards. Should have stayed in cities daily bombarded by your peaceful friends.

        Nah, they’re just gonna stay in Europe.

        There’s literally tens of thousands being trained in Europe to head back to Ukraine at the very moment. You ever even talked to a real life Ukrainian or you live in your delusional bubble on the internet?

        life’s gonna get real hard for people like you real soon.

        It is, just to remind you, we’re already dealing with people Russia attempts to kill either by forcing them over Poland’s eastern border, or the ones who had to escape being butchered in the name of your vision of peace in Ukraine.

        You pushed this discussion into the issue of war, now you escape it after sidetracking anything that could be proved and argued based on evidence (like Ukraine being somehow necessary to invade Russia which is utter bullshit with history clearly proving you wrong, twice) and redirecting it onto issues of speculation, or lacking data.
        Your ignorance and fixation on accepting only propaganda over actually visiting the countries you talk about or talking to their people insulates you from reality, while projecting your insecurity that causes onto me, where I explicitly state basis for my opinions. All you did throughout this entire discussion was cover your eyes, and attempt to insult me while blasting “RT” propaganda 1:1. I just hope you’re paid for spilling this bullshit cuz otherwise you’re just a classical case of a western “useful idiot” as uncle Joseph would say. Hope you get better one day, seriously.

            • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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              1 month ago

              See the fun part is that we will know who is right soon enough. This isn’t some philosophical debate here where there’s no clear answer. Russia will win the war, Europe will be stuck dealing with a failed state in Ukraine and a bunch of angry fascist, while getting fucked economically by the US. People like you will be forced to grapple with reality at that point. So enjoy being smug while you can, those days are numbered.

              • harc@szmer.info
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                1 month ago

                Out of pure interest what does “winning the war” mean for Russia?
                Ukraine clearly described what it considers as a win, and it’s clearly very unlikely to achieve it; reclaiming all of it’s internationally recognized borders, you know as guaranteed by Russia and US when Ukraine gave away their nukes.
                But Russia’s win was meant to be a parade through Kyiv on the 3rd day or so? Then that got corrected to finally capturing the oblasts they already proclaimed Russia two years ago? Now it might require also reclaiming the part of their actual country they lost, I guess? Your beloved land of social justice never really clearly defined what it’s territorial objectives are, but yeah, it’s not even a war, since they still land people in prison for calling it that so what’s to be won.
                Not to mention loosing/crippling half a million of their citizens to size the poorest but fossil fuel rich parts of Ukraine plus a bunch of cities they leveled to the ground, with an estimated 1 million casualties of on both sides “for peace”. Oh, and a side of land fertile in mines. Or creating as you describe “a failed fascist state”, to… secure their border? Additional 1,340km of hard to defend border with NATO in the north? Which one is the win part here?

                And mate, seriously, I was born in a collapsing “socialist republic”, and watched it being rampaged by neolibs with explosion of every possible pathology that causes.
                It’s pitiful you wish such hardships upon any people, particularly for someones imperialist gains. And laughable you think what you are describing is the worst possible option for central and eastern Europe. Most of the region has seen Russian occupation, it’s in the living memory of our societies, which is exactly why things will not go the way you expect. The worse the situation, the stronger the resistance will be. We’re Slavs, we bask in suffering and fighting against the odds, it’s the one thing we know.

                • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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                  1 month ago

                  Wining the war means destroying the fighting capacity of the AFU, and ensuring that whatever is left of Ukraine remains a neutral state that can’t threaten Russia and that will never be part of NATO. Also, Ukraine never had nukes. USSR stationed nukes on the territory of Ukraine, but Russia became the inheritor state of USSR.

                  You don’t seem to understand how wars of attrition work. Everybody who was actually motivated to fight Russia signed up for the army in the first couple of years. Most of them are now dead. At this point, 75% of people fighting are conscripted against their will as Bloomberg reports. Most people left in Ukraine do not care whether it’s under Russian influence or not at this point, they just want the war to end. These deranged fantasies of yours regarding some kind of guerrilla warfare are never going to happen.

                  Not to mention loosing/crippling half a million of their citizens to size the poorest but fossil fuel rich parts of Ukraine plus a bunch of cities they leveled to the ground, with an estimated 1 million casualties of on both sides “for peace”.

                  It’s hilarious how people like you just guzzle propaganda uncritically. Here’s what the only western source that shows any methodology has to say, far cry from your fantasies I’m afraid https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

                  In fact, if you look closely at the chart, you’ll see that casualties have dropped off significantly in the past year of the war because AFU fighting capacity has been degraded to the point where it’s barely a functional fighting force. Don’t take my word for it though, here’s BBC saying that AFU is on a verge of collapse.

                  Or creating as you describe “a failed fascist state”, to… secure their border? Additional 1,340km of hard to defend border with NATO in the north? Which one is the win part here?

                  How do you think that’s going to work out for Europe when the hardcore fascists in Ukraine decide that you lot betrayed them?

                  And mate, seriously, I was born in a collapsing “socialist republic”, and watched it being rampaged by neolibs with explosion of every possible pathology that causes.

                  Same, the difference is that I’m not licking liberal boots the way you are.

                  It’s pitiful you wish such hardships upon any people, particularly for someones imperialist gains.

                  I don’t wish any hardships on anyone. That’s just you projecting your own psychopathic tendencies on others. This war was completely unnecessary, and it happened because NATO decided that it would ignore Russia’s security interest. Support from people like you was crucial in this. Now you get to reap what you all sowed and I have zero sympathy for you.

                  Most of the region has seen Russian occupation, it’s in the living memory of our societies, which is exactly why things will not go the way you expect. The worse the situation, the stronger the resistance will be. We’re Slavs, we bask in suffering and fighting against the odds, it’s the one thing we know.

                  You’re all going to be at each other’s throats as your economies continue to unravel. That’s what’s actually going to happen as it always has throughout history. But you keep on believing whatever you need to believe until that happens.

                  • harc@szmer.info
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                    1 month ago

                    Wining the war means destroying the fighting capacity of the AFU,

                    Works great since it got from “they bombard Donbas” (propaganda bullshit btw) to “dron debris” blowing up anything from refineries, factories 1500km deep inside, buildings in Moscow and bunkers in Kurks.

                    and ensuring that whatever is left of Ukraine remains a neutral state that can’t threaten Russia and that will never be part of NATO.

                    Also, Ukraine never had nukes.

                    Yeah, OFC, Russia and USA negotiated their handover for 6 years and paid for it just to larp.

                    Most people left in Ukraine do not care

                    How would you know that? Spoke to any in real life? I work with them by the hundreds in Poland, assist massive trade union in Ukraine. You’re delusional.

                    These deranged fantasies of yours regarding some kind of guerrilla warfare are never going to happen.

                    You don’t know the first thing about the history of the region, or Ukraine, dont you?

                    only western source that shows any methodology

                    The methodology is social media + public registries. How it matches the oft repeated Russian complaint of the dead being signed off as simply missing? At this point if you started reading “mil bloggers” directly it’d be an improvement for your level of propaganda detachment. If it were 100k lost Russian army would be pretty massive now taking in 30k/month according to it’s own statements, wouldn’t it? So why are most if not all observable bases on NATO borders half empty? We even see that in shop sales around Kaliningrad.

                    you’ll see that casualties have dropped off significantly in the past year of the war

                    Yeah, not like there’s a lag in announcements and very clearly there’s massive meat-wave attacks going on for the last half a year.

                    How do you think that’s going to work out for Europe when the hardcore fascists in Ukraine decide that you lot betrayed them?

                    Why would they if they are supplied by “European fascist states” and also “have all died already, it’s all forced conscription”. They are forced to fight, dead, and resentful if not supported at the same time? It really makes sense in your head?

                    Same, the difference is that I’m not licking liberal boots the way you are.

                    Yeah, also a very highly decorated ~~navy seal ~~ specnaz sniper… I’m more likely to believe you’re a dog with the level of detachment you’re displaying here.

                    Now you get to reap what you all sowed and I have zero sympathy for you.

                    You just said entire countries/Europe a comment ago, but I guess economic hardships or whatever that was meant to be are going to be extremely selective? You know that staff you spill out makes no sense even internally?

                    NATO decided that it would ignore Russia’s security interest

                    How does Russia consider the ones it gave to Ukraine?

                    You’re all going to be at each other’s throats

                    So much for pretending you’re from here. And yeah, check out any history of the states in the region.