A week ago, analyst TD Cowen revealed that Microsoft had canceled leases "totalling a couple hundred MWs," with "at least two private data center operators across multiple US markets." The report also details how Microsoft "pulled back on converting negotiated and signed Statement[s] of Qualifications (SQQs)," which it added
Data center buildouts take about three to six years to complete, and the largest hyperscale facilities can easily cost several billion dollars, meaning that these moves are extremely forward-looking. You don’t build a data center for the demand you have now, but for the demand you expect further down the line. This suggests that Microsoft believes its current infrastructure (and its likely scaled-back plans for expansion) will be sufficient for a movement that CEO Satya Nadella called a “golden age for systems” less than a year ago.
To explain here, TD Cowen is effectively saying that Microsoft is responding to a “major demand signal” and said “major demand signal” is saying “you do not need more data centers.” Said demand signal that Microsoft was responding to, in TD Cowen’s words, is its “appetite for capacity” to provide servers to OpenAI, and it seems that said appetite is waning, and Microsoft no longer wants to build out data centers for OpenAI.
I believe the reason Microsoft is cutting back is that it does not have the appetite to provide further data center expansion for OpenAI, and it’s having doubts about the future of generative AI as a whole. If Microsoft believed there was a massive opportunity in supporting OpenAI’s further growth, or that it had “massive demand” for generative AI services, there would be no reason to cancel capacity, let alone cancel such a significant amount.
Interesting article.
Not too put too fine a point on it, but the majority of Ed Zitron’s articles are deeply researched and very interesting.