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Cake day: July 31st, 2023

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  • Look at what Hamas could extort from the Israeli government with one hostage (see: Gilad Shalit).

    At a certain point, the Netanyahu administration needs to sit down with its military apparatus and get answers to hard questions like:

    • how many are captured?
    • where are they?
    • any VIPs?
    • what will it cost us to get them?
      • In the short term, tactically?
      • in the medium term, with respect to our ability to disincentive future attempts to kill the people we are ostensibly accountable to protect?
      • in the long term, with respect to our strategic geopolitical position projecting our power in the region?
    • what’s the accuracy of our intelligence feeding all of the above in our decision-making nexus?

    It’s not hard to imagine a calculated decision around a table where the outcome favors eradicating Hamas over recovering hostages.

    And with respect to

    But are Hamas going to be blamed for those deaths? When in reality the hostages were killed due to an aerial bombardment coming from Israel?

    It seems like academic distinction at this point. There is casus belli for Israel to attack Hamas. Now there’s a war. War sucks for many, many, many reasons, among which is collateral civilian damage. Made even worse when the Israeli military fights against irregular forces who have deliberately embedded themselves into and under high-density vulnerable targets amongst their own population. Do you blame the missile striking its target? The institution with justification to launch them? The deliberate design decision for the Hamas government to bunker up their terrorist leaders underneath civilian hospitals?

    What are you trying to sort out for yourself by deciding how to mete out the blame?

    War is war. Innocent people will die. So it goes. “Poo-tee-weet,” as Vonnegut wrote about the whole disgusting affair.