I’m not fretting about it, I think it’s fucking stupid to leave the choice with the same idiots who fucked it up to begin with
Sure. And I agree. But I’m over it. Any one polling over 45%. I dont care any more. I just want someone who can beat Trump. Its obvious to everyone with eyes that isn’t Biden.
Even changing the nominee is risky at this point.
So is not replacing him, and the hand wringing around it being a problem is a significant contributor to this mess lasting as long as it has.
The right answer is to go to an open convention and duke it out the way its always been done in the past. At least bring back some semblance of democracy to the Democratic party; you’ll get a SHIT ton of coverage on the matter; it will turn into a real horse race and get people engaged, and then you’ll have a candidate is at least competitive, which Biden isnt.
You shouldnt be scared of replacing Biden. Thats like being scared of pulling over in a car with a flat tire.
“Demand me nothing; what you know, you know. From this time forth I never will speak word”
-Lago, Othello (5.2. 347-348)
Ah yes. This old tired canard.
Tell me you don’t understand XKCD without telling me you don’t understand XKCD.
I mean, this is the kind of messaging we should expect from the office until the exact moment he flips. There isn’t anything really “new” in this BBC article, its mostly a rehash of several other articles and polls that have come out since last Thursday.
I’m still holding out for an announcement this evening/ tomorrow morning, but I am becoming less confident in that. I’m still confident that Biden isn’t going to be the nominee, but he’s creating a significant cost associated with him continuing to run as a lost-cause candidate. We need to move on and regroup, and we’re running out of time to do so.
At this point, Biden needs to basically recover 30 points in the polling to overcome the disadvantage we know he carries going into a general (we have seen how he underperforms his polling on election day; we also know that Trump typically outperforms his polling on election day). A thirty point swing at this point is a statistical impossibility, for those being practical about the matter. I can post the analysis again, but no swing of that magnitude has ever happened this close to election day. Ever. Based on his current polling, Biden has a less than 1% probability of winning, which is to say, basically impossible.
You can engage with any of the points I made to show your honesty at any point.
But you won’t.
Oh I didn’t realize you were just jerking off. I apologize for answering you in good faith.
I mean do you even know a what you mean by that?
A “good” candidate is one that can win.
He has to be capable of winning to be worth supporting.
In the past 500 days, at no point had Biden demonstrated any evidence that he can win the election. He didn’t campaign as a two term president in 2020, he specifically acknowledged he would only do one term. His polling has been abysmal, almost all of his term, when we know that he already suffers from a 12 point polling deficit on Trump (Biden needs to be beating Trump by 12 to beat him, statistically). His key policies are deeply, the ones that will define him as president, specifically Gaza and the border, are deeply unpopular with the key demographics he needs to win, specifically middle eastern voters in the upper Midwest and any one under 40.
So this all is, and always has been, on Biden, to do better on. He’s not a candidate that you can support with these outstanding issues because he can’t win an election with them. Supporting him inspire of those issues does nothing to change the fact that he can’t win. Infact, the blue maga blind support (orange man worse, blue no matter who, etc…) has significantly harmed our ability to beat Trump because it prevented any pressure being placed on Biden to become a better candidate.
Some one needing to earn your vote in a primary season is bigger than just getting your issues addressed. It’s about carving a candidate into someone popular enough to win an election. That’s how Biden won in 2020. He had to go caress and finesse various voting blocks into supporting him by becoming a candidate and having a platform they could get behind. And it worked. He won that election by stepping left and effectively cloning the entire progressive/ Bernie platform.
Pretending this guy can win is idiotic and doesn’t work. If for whatever reason we still end up with Biden as candidate, we’re going to lose this election. And it’s going to be because of the blue no matter who/ Blue maga crowd if we do lose. It’s an intentional ignorance they’ve maintained about how electoralism and elections work in an effort to shield an unelectable candidate from criticism, and lemmy.world, the news and politics C’s and their associated mods, are particularly rife with it. If we run Biden inspire of his obvious shortcoming which are frankly insurmountable at this point, I put three blame solely in those who made a concerted effort to lie/disguise/ and prevent discussion about his shortcomings as a candidate.
I don’t need to worry about that, but I have standing wagers with several people here on lemmy and elsewhere that Biden both:
a) wont be the nominee,
and
b) wont be the next president.
So I’d have to pay up? But I’m not worried about that in the slightest at this point (I got a bit excited after his ‘decent’ state of the Union back in March that he might flip on Gaza, but no, he dug his grave further).
Too many other seats are on the line to run Biden.
I took several bets where I was able to get anything from 10:1 or 20:1 in a parlay for a) and b) back in April. I’m confident enough now to do even money if there is no time line associated with it (other than obvious ones like the convention). All in all I probably have about a couple hundred on the line right now? Its all on these two outcomes.
I’ll take 10:1 that Biden isn’t the nominee at the end of this week if you are willing to offer it, and even money that he isn’t the nominee (no timeline) or president. I’m also interested in parlays if you have any you want to propose.
Every comment you make just tells on yourself. We know what you’re doing here. You’re not clever.
You just don’t get it do you. You’ve lost yourself in a narcissistic self delusion. Its sad. But I do appreciate you all giving us a glimpse into how these kinds of cults form. Its important for us as a community so we can inoculate ourselves. Through your sacrifice, you’ve done us a service.
But it is sad.
Kid, everyone here knows every one else here.
We all know you are blue MAGA. Every one knows your blue MAGA. And until last week, there was a significant chance you were going to force us off a cliff with Joe Biden at the helm.
THANKFULLY we’re able to fix that, no thanks to you.
Or maybe it’s you that’s bad faith.
He might want it to not be such a big story. It will be regardless.
I mean, this conversation is happening in public. People see you being, and having been, entirely on the wrong side of all this, in such a way that you’ve damaged our ability to stop Trump. We can fix this, but we have to act now. We’re able to fix it in-spite of you, not because of you. You are still blocking our ability to stop Trump.
You’ve gaslit yourself into a state of complete denial and delusion. And yes, I’ve been caught the brunt of the down votes from other people as delusional as yourself, for months; years. But they were wrong, and you were wrong, and I’ve been right this entire time. My worldview accurately predicts future states. Yours (and theirs) doesn’t.
This is kind of amazing to watch.
Whats it like when your entire worldview collapses in on its self to find you’ve been wrong the entire time?
Historically, I refused to engage with Trump cult members in any way, so I don’t have a view into this mentality.
Whats it like?
You don’t get it yet, but we’ll all be able to point to you, defending the indefensible, this entire time.
History will show you demanding we stick with a losing strategy much longer than we needed to.
Would pretty much guarantee whoever filled his spot became president.
100%. Biden is and has been the worst possible candidate.
Removed by mod
Well, you and I are.
There are plenty of people here, I suggest a majority, who have deluded themselves into thinking Biden is the only possible path to beating Trump, rather than a guaranteed L.
This cohort is the same cohort that has effectively put us in such a dramatically weak position to beat Trump. They are the real problem and if allowed to go unchecked, will lose this election for us.