• paddirn@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Even though I think that’s how it may have played in the West, it seemed like Prigozhin stayed pretty loyal to Putin all throughout, he was really careful to not lay any blame on Putin, more that he was misled. If anything, I wonder if blame will be placed on Shoigu, the Defense minister, that’s who Prigozhin’s beef was with I thought. I’d assume there will be some mob-style reprisals against Shoigu and/or the military leadership rather than against Putin himself. That still may benefit Ukrainians regardless.

    • barsoap@lemm.ee
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      1 year ago

      Putin won’t axe Shoigu he’s his perfectly loyal Tuvan pet… not necessarily loyal to Putin (he started under Yeltsin), but to the office of the president: Shoigu is guaranteed to not make a move for office because he has no chance in the first place because racism.

      He’s pretty much the only person among the Siloviki who is guaranteed to not use their position as head of the army to putsch. Shoigu’s best play is to be loyal to whoever happens to be his boss, and that’s what he’s doing. He may be otherwise incompetent bu he understands politics.

      (Side note: Tuva does have a kickass national anthem, with throat singing and everything)

      • macracanthorhynchus@mander.xyz
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        1 year ago

        Thank you for linking that. The anthem absolutely slaps. Now I wish I was Tuvan. Or, at the very least, I wish the Russian Federation would collapse so Tuva can participate in the Olympics under their own flag, and then I will cheer for them so I can hear this anthem.

    • theodewere@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      i don’t disagree with one bit of your analysis, i’m just not sure Shoigu will be enough once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways… popcorn time in any case, like you say…

      • athos77@kbin.social
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        1 year ago

        once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways

        I doubt the West will supply arms for a large-scale invasion of Russia. They’ve already made it clear that the stuff that they are supplying is to be used only in Ukraine, occupied Ukraine, and Crimea, and not anywhere in Russia proper. And Ukraine has been very careful to strike inside Russia only with weapons that do not come from Western governments, and to aim only at military and government targets inside Russia. I doubt a ‘real’ invasion will happen. Drone worries and border skirmishes, certainly; actual march-on-Moscow invasion, I doubt it.

        • theodewere@kbin.social
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          1 year ago

          nothing on this Earth is going to stop that Army… they will do what they want now… you just expressed every Russian’s delusional dream…

          Russians have some waking up in store for them

          • athos77@kbin.social
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            1 year ago

            And on a more realistic note, Ukraine can only continue to fight as long as they have effective weapons, in large numbers - numbers too large for it’s treasury to handle.

            They have to get the arms from somewhere. Their best bet right now is the West, which has large amounts of various weapons designed to fight the Russians.

            If they lost the support of the West, it’s possible they could cobble together enough materiel from other sources - countries that would welcome Russian weakness, or welcome Russia’s distraction, or see Ukraine as a buffer, or who simply want influence in the area. They could cobble together an arms supply from those sources, but the supply would be erratic, be less designed for interoperability, and would likely run out faster than the Ukrainians’ need. I mean, even the US is struggling to supply enough munitions to Ukraine, I’m not sure who can keep up with the needed supply if the US steps out.

            • theodewere@kbin.social
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              1 year ago

              that is not an Army “being supported by” anyone… it exists. it was armed and trained by NATO, that’s correct… it is basically a NATO force now… deal with it or not, they’re going to show you…

              there is no force anywhere in Europe that can stop that Army now… it doesn’t matter if you understand that or not… they don’t need help…

              • athos77@kbin.social
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                1 year ago

                You can have the best, most elite fighting force on the face of the planet. They still need weapons, they still need ammo, they still need grenades and rockets and artillery shells, their weapons and tanks and APC’s and drones still need servicing and replacements.

                In short, Ukraine needs an entire war-oriented production line and logistics/supply system. They have one now, courtesy of the EU, the US, and Ukraine’s other allies. A significant percentage of that military aid came from the US. The US is interested in helping Ukraine regain it’s full sovereignty including Crimea, and protecting it’s European allies. It has absolutely no interest in or appetite for, any real invasion of Russian soil. The US and the EU have repeatedly told Ukraine that Ukraine cannot use any materiel supplied by the US, the EU, or European nations, in any attack on Russia itself.

                Ukraine cannot ‘win’ an invasion of Russia with the weapons it currently has: they don’t have enough weapons or anywhere near enough ammo to do it. They may have enough for quick strike forces, but they certainly don’t have enough men to actually occupy Russia. Your dream of Ukrainian tanks rolling down Russian highways is just that - a dream.

                As for your assertion that “that is not an Army “being supported by” anyone […] they don’t need help”: here is a list of military retirement that the US has sent so far - it doesn’t even invite what Ukraine has received from other countries or companies. Please explain to me how Ukraine, even with the best army in the world, would win it’s war without the weapons and ammo supplied by it’s allies. And again, this is just a list of the US military aid, not the EU, not Australia or any of the other countries and companies sending supplies. U.S. security assistance to Ukraine between January 20, 2020, and June 27, 2023:

                [Please see my reply to this comment, it’s a long list]

                • theodewere@kbin.social
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                  1 year ago

                  you’re working really hard… good luck with that…

                  In short, Ukraine…

                  i love that you actually used the words, “in short”… just to demonstrate what a troll you are…

                • athos77@kbin.social
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                  1 year ago

                  10,000 Javelin anti-armor systems

                  70,000 other anti-armor systems and

                  munitions

                  1,700 Stinger anti-aircraft systems

                  4,000 TOW missiles

                  35,000 grenade launchers and small arms,

                  with ammunition

                  100,000 sets of body armor and helmets

                  Thousands of night-vision devices,

                  surveillance systems, thermal imagery

                  systems, optics, and laser rangefinders

                  C-4 and other explosives

                  Explosive-ordnance-disposal equipment

                  M18A1 Claymore mines

                  Anti-tank mines

                  Mine-clearing equipment

                  Obstacle-emplacement equipment

                  Medical supplies

                  Field equipment, cold-weather gear,

                  generators, and spare parts

                  Chemical, biological, radiological, and

                  nuclear protective equipment

                  18 armored bridging systems

                  160 155mm Howitzers and ammunition

                  72 105mm Howitzers and ammunition

                  47 120mm mortar systems

                  10 82mm mortar systems

                  67 81mm mortar systems

                  58 60mm mortar systems

                  203mm, 152mm, 130mm, 122mm, 120mm,

                  and 25mm ammunition

                  38 HIMAR systems

                  60,000 122mm Grad rockets

                  Precision-guided rockets

                  Rocket launchers and ammunition

                  154 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles

                  4 Bradley Fire Support Team vehicles

                  31 Abrams tanks

                  45 T-72B tanks (via the Czech Republic)

                  125 Stryker armored personnel carriers

                  300 M113 armored personnel carriers

                  250 M1117 armored security vehicles

                  200 armored medical-treatment vehicles

                  500 MRAP vehicles

                  125mm, 120mm, and 105mm tank

                  ammunition

                  2,000 Humvees

                  354 tactical vehicles

                  100 light tactical vehicles

                  68 trucks

                  124 trailers

                  10 command post vehicles

                  30 ammunition support vehicles

                  6 armored utility trucks

                  8 logistics support vehicle

                  89 heavy fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers

                  1 Patriot air defense battery and munitions

                  8 NASAM systems

                  20 Avenger air defense systems

                  HAWK air defense systems and munitions

                  Laser-guided rocket systems

                  RIM-7 missiles

                  Antiaircraft guns and ammunition

                  Equipment to integrate with and sustain

                  Ukraine’s systems

                  9 anti-drone gun trucks and ammunition

                  10 anti-drone laser-guided rocket systems

                  High-speed anti-radiation missiles

                  (HARMs)

                  Precision aerial munitions

                  6,000 Zuni aircraft rockets (could function

                  as air defense)

                  7,000 Hydra-70 aircraft rockets

                  20 Mi-17 helicopters

                  ScanEagle drones

                  Puma drones

                  JUMP drones

                  CyberLux K8 drones

                  Switchblade drones

                  Phoenix Ghost drones

                  ALTIUS-600 drones (can also be used for

                  surveillance)

                  Munitions

                  2 Harpoon coastal defense systems

                  62 coastal and riverine patrol boats

                  Unmanned coastal defense vessels

                  Port and harbor security equipment

                  4 satellite communications antennas

                  2 radars for unmanned aerial systems

                  21 air surveillance radars

                  70 counter-artillery and counter-

                  mortar radars

                  20 multi-mission radars

                  Tactical secure communications systems

                  Counter air defense capability

                  Counter–unmanned aerial systems

                  Electronic jamming equipment

                  SATCOM terminals and services

                  Commercial satellite imagery services